A well-known study out of UC Berkeley by organizational behavior professor Philip Tetlock found that television pundits - that is, people who earn their livings by holding forth confidently on the basis of limited information - make worse predictions about political and economic trends than they would by random chance. And the very worst prognosticators tend to be the most famous and the most confident - the very ones who would be considered natural leaders in an HBS classroom.
The U.S. Army has a name for a similar phenomenon: "the Bus to Abilene." "Any army officer can tell you what that means," Colonel (Ret.) Stephen J. Gerras, a professor of behavioral sciences at the U.S. Army War College, told Yale Alumni Magazine in 2008. It's about a family sitting on a porch in Texas on a hot summer day, and somebody says, "I'm bored. Why don't we go to Abilene?" When they get to Abilene, somebody says, "You know, I didn't really want to go." And the next person says. "I didn't want to go - I thought you wanted to go," and so on. Whenever you're in an army group and somebody says, "I think we're all getting on the bus to Abilene here," that is a red flag. You can stop a conversation with it. It is a very powerful artifact of our culture."
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